Changelog

2026

• Jul 10 — Major methodology update. Added the Excess CAPE Yield — Robert Shiller’s rate-adjusted valuation gauge — as our eighth indicator, so the composite now accounts for interest rates. The Shiller CAPE and Tobin’s Q are now judged against a trailing 30-year baseline instead of their all-time average, adapting to structural regime shifts rather than assuming a quick return to century-old norms. The composite page now shows valuation and stress sub-scores with the range of indicator readings, plus a new “What happened next” section mapping past composite readings to the real S&P 500 returns that actually followed over the next decade.
• Jul 8 — Launched with seven valuation and stress indicators for the US stock market: Shiller CAPE ratio, the Buffett Indicator, Tobin's Q, S&P 500 ÷ M2, the VIX, the high-yield credit spread, and the yield curve (10y–2y). Each indicator gets its own page with live readings, full history, and methodology. We also added a composite overvaluation probability that blends all seven into a single gauge.