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VIX

The market's 'fear index' of expected volatility.

16.13
Caution
As of

The VIX is 16.13 as of July 7, 2026 — 0.4 standard deviations below its historical mean of 19.45, a Caution reading.

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Historical crashes marked on this chart (3)

The dashed red lines flag major US market crashes within this indicator’s history. Here is what happened at each and what followed.

Dot-com crash (2000)
The tech bubble burst in March 2000; the Nasdaq lost about 78% by 2002 as internet valuations collapsed. A mild recession followed and tech stocks took roughly 15 years to reclaim their peak.
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
The subprime mortgage meltdown and Lehman Brothers' collapse cut the S&P 500 about 57% into March 2009. It triggered the Great Recession, sweeping bailouts, and a decade of near-zero interest rates.
COVID crash (2020)
Pandemic lockdowns caused the fastest bear market ever in February–March 2020, a roughly 34% plunge in weeks. Unprecedented Fed and fiscal stimulus sparked a rapid recovery to new highs.

Overview

The VIX — the CBOE Volatility Index, often called Wall Street's 'fear index' — measures the market's expectation of 30-day volatility, implied from S&P 500 options prices. A high VIX means fear; a very low VIX means complacency. Persistently low readings are a classic late-bubble tell, with investors pricing in almost no risk. The VIX averages around 19–20 and spiked above 80 during both the 2008 crisis and the March 2020 crash.

How to read it

Think of the VIX as the market's expected turbulence over the next 30 days. Around 19–20 is normal, below ~13 is calm bordering on complacent, and spikes above 30 mean fear. Because complacency tends to cluster near market tops, this gauge is inverted: unusually low readings register as a caution.

How it's calculated

  1. The CBOE computes the VIX continuously from S&P 500 options.
  2. We store the daily closing value.
  3. Because low volatility signals complacency, the verdict is inverted: unusually low readings register as 'overvalued/complacent'.

Criticisms

  • The VIX is forward-looking and can stay low for extended periods before a shock.
  • It measures volatility, not valuation directly — it is a sentiment gauge.

Frequently asked questions

What is a normal VIX level?
The VIX averages around 19–20. Readings below ~13 signal calm or complacency, readings above ~20 signal rising fear, and spikes above 30 mark genuine market stress.
How high has the VIX spiked in a crash?
The VIX spiked above 80 during the 2008 financial crisis and again in March 2020, its highest readings on record, as investors braced for extreme swings.
Why is a low VIX a warning sign?
A very low VIX means options are cheap and investors expect little turbulence — complacency that has often preceded sharp reversals. That is why we treat unusually low readings as a caution, not an all-clear.

Data sources

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